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Analysing the situation evolving in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war before the audience who gathered together in front of an outdoor stage, the Prime Minister took the view that a global systems change is coming; Asia will be the world’s dominant centre, and with regard to this, we need “an overarching Hungarian strategy, the first raw version of which” has already been completed.
At the beginning of his speech, he mentioned that on Friday he had had talks with his Romanian counterpart in Bucharest. “We’re making progress,” Mr Orbán said in summary, today, Romania is Hungary’s third largest economic partner, and economic and trade relations are breaking ever further records. He said he spoke to Marcel Ciolacu about the plan of a Bucharest-Budapest express railway line, and reassured him that the Hungarian EU presidency will place the issue of Romania’s Schengen accession on the agenda at the October council meeting of EU ministers of interior and justice, and if necessary, also at the December meeting.
He said while this year the Romanian party did not seek to determine what he was allowed to speak about at the Tusványos event, many in Brussels condemned the Hungarian peace mission efforts despite the fact that the organisation’s Treaties themselves lay down that “The Union’s aim is to promote peace.”
Time is on the side of the pro-peace policy, the Hungarian Prime Minister stated, referring to the presidential election in the US as “Trump ante portas.” In his words, if Europe fails to switch to a pro-peace policy before the US presidential election, then after Donald Trump’s election victory it will be compelled to do so by admitting defeat, disgraced and having to accept political responsibility on its own.
The Prime Minister said Brussels finds it injurious that we are referring to what they are doing as a pro-war policy; in their opinion, they are supporting the war in the interest of peace. At the same time, since the beginning of the Hungarian peace mission, the American and Russian foreign secretaries have had talks and so have the Swiss and Russian foreign ministers. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy finally called Donald Trump and the Ukrainian foreign minister paid a visit to Beijing. “Meaning that a process of fermentation has begun,” he added.
Slowly but surely, we are moving away from the pro-war European policy towards a pro-peace policy, the Prime Minister stressed.
Mr Orbán said the Russo-Ukrainian war has revealed the truth, as did the red pill in the film The Matrix.
With its ruthlessness, the war is taking us to a new observation platform, to a high-stand, and is offering us a new perspective that we had not known before. In this true reality, ideologies lose their might, so do “statistical machinations,” media distortions and the “tactical little lies of politicians.” Widespread delusions are no longer relevant, and neither are conspiracy theories, the Prime Minister listed, “what remains is bare, brutal reality.”
The Prime Minister spoke about this reality in points. As the number one point, he highlighted that the warring parties were sustaining brutal losses in the hundreds of thousands in the war; despite this, they do not want to come to an agreement. There are two reasons for this: on the one hand, they both believe that they can win, while on the other, they are both being fuelled by their own actual or presumed truth, he said.
The Prime Minister said the Ukrainians believe that this is a Russian invasion in contravention of international law and their territorial sovereignty, they are in actual fact acting in self-defence and are waging a war of independence. By contrast, the Russians believe that major NATO military developments have been carried out in Ukraine, Ukraine has been promised NATO membership, and they want to see neither NATO troops, nor NATO arms at the Russian-Ukrainian border. Meaning that Russia – so they say – has the right to self-defence, and this is in actual fact a provoked war. In other words, everyone has some – presumed or real – truth and neither party will surrender, Mr Orbán added.
This is leading to escalation, the Prime Minister stated, stressing that if it is up to the two parties, there will be no peace. Peace can only be brought from outside.
Secondly, he continued, while in previous years the United States declared China to be its number one challenger, what we see now is that it is waging a proxy war against Russia and is continually accusing China of covertly supporting Russia.
If that is the case, Mr Orbán added, the question has yet to be answered: Why is it reasonable to herd two such large countries together into a hostile camp?
As the third element of reality exposed by the war, the Prime Minister highlighted Ukraine’s capacity for resistance beyond all expectations which he attributed to the fact that Ukraine has seen a glimpse of the chance of belonging to the West in which it has discovered a new meaning for its existence: instead of being a mere “buffer zone,” it regards itself as an eastern border region of the West.
As point number four, Mr Orbán established that Russia was not the rigid, neo-Stalinist autocracy that the Brussels leaders – trying to bring it to its knees with sanctions – had made it out to be. In actual fact, we are talking about a country which is presently displaying technical and economic flexibility and perhaps even – we will see – social flexibility, Mr Orbán said.
In point number five, he concluded that European policy has collapsed as Europe had given up protecting its own interests. He added that at present, Europe “is unconditionally following the US Democratic Party’s policy, even at the expense of destroying itself,” while the sanctions introduced against Russia are violating fundamental European interests, are hiking up the price of energy and are rendering the European economy uncompetitive.
Mr Orbán stressed that the essence of the European power system had previously lain in the Paris-Berlin axis which no longer existed, or “has become insignificant and avoidable” compared with the new power centre comprised of London, Warsaw, Kiev, the Baltic states and the Scandinavian states.
The Prime Minister recalled that the replacement of the Paris-Berlin axis is not a new idea, but “an old Polish plan” the essence of which lies in that Poland should become the continent’s number one American base, and is therefore “inviting the Americans in, between the Germans and the Russians,” – something which only the current war has made possible.
This is an old plan: weakening Russia and outgrowing Germany, Mr Orbán said, also stating that the Polish are pursuing the most sanctimonious and two-faced policy in the whole of Europe as “they’re obliviously doing business with the Russians,” whilst morally lecturing us for the same.
Mr Orbán also said Poland has given up the Visegrád cooperation for this strategy because the V4 meant – whilst accepting the Paris-Berlin axis – that “we accept that there is a strong Germany, there is a strong Russia, and between the two, in cooperation with the states of Central Europe, we are creating a third factor.”
Regarding the strength of Warsaw, the Prime Minister mentioned that the Polish army was Europe’s second largest army after the French, and the country was spending 5 per cent of its GDP on defence.
Beyond aiming for peace, the peace mission also seeks to urge Europe to finally pursue a policy of its own, the Prime Minister observed.
As point number six, he mentioned that in his view the war had also revealed that the West had found itself in “intellectual isolation” because it had to date looked upon itself as a point of reference, as a kind of global standard because it had determined the values such as liberal democracy and the green transition which the world had to accept.
In this situation, in the past two years, there has been a 180-degree turnaround because while also now the West has instructed the rest of the world to take a stance against Russia and for the West on a moral basis, by contrast, the truth is that slowly everyone is supporting Russia, the Prime Minister said.
He added that it was not surprising that, for instance, North Korea and China supported Russia, but they had also been joined by Iran, India and the NATO member Turkey, and additionally, the Muslim world, too, saw a partner in Russia.
In point seven of his list, the Prime Minister said the war has revealed the fact that the world’s biggest problem at present is the weakness and falling apart of the West as well as the narrative relayed by western media that Russia and the threat posed by it is the world’s biggest source of danger.
This is a mistake. Russia is a country under hyper rational leadership which is understandable and predictable, in contrast to the West whose behaviour is not rational, nor predictable, the Prime Minister took the view, observing that the West is unable to handle the situation that “there are two Suns in the sky,” meaning that a new challenge has emerged in the form of the rise of China and Asia.
The true task for Hungary is to try to understand the West again as we Central Europeans see the West as irrational, he said. Mr Orbán explained that the contradiction should perhaps be sought in the fact that Central Europe’s world view rests on the concept of nation states, while the West believes that these no longer exist.
In his view, nation states also have “biblical foundations,” but this concept or approach is denied by the West; in their view, nation states do not exist, and they hold entirely different views on a number of other important issues, including the issue of migration as well, he stressed. In his speech, the Prime Minister highlighted that while in the eastern half of Europe Christian people are killing one another in the hundreds of thousands, in the western parts of the continent people coming from alien civilisations are being let in in the hundreds of thousands.
From our point of view, this is absurdity incarnate, but this viewpoint does not even emerge West of us, the Prime Minister observed, adding that the European Union does not only think so, but also declares this other view, and with this, their goal is to “transcend nations” and to hand over the sovereignty of nation states to Brussels.
According to Mr Orbán, there is a similar battle under way in the United States, and so the stakes in the US presidential election are enormous. Republican candidate for president Donald Trump has set out to bring the American people back from the post-national liberal state to the state of nation state.
This is why attempts have been made to prevent Donald Trump from running in the elections. This is why they want to put him in jail, to strip him of his assets, and if that does not help, this is why they wanted to kill him, he stressed, adding that on Friday he spoke to the former president who sent his greetings to the participants of the camp.
As a political consequence of the post-national state shaking the very foundations of democracy, the Prime Minister also spoke about the political problems of elitism and populism. The elite condemn the people for shifting towards the Right, and discard the people’s feelings and thoughts as xenophobic, homophobic and nationalistic. In response, the people accuse the elite of not concerning themselves with what is important for the people, but instead sinking into some kind of senseless globalism, Mr Orbán stated.
He said this also raises the problem of representative democracy: the elite do not want to represent the people; in fact, they are proud of this, and meanwhile the people have no representation.
For the elite, only the values of people with degrees are acceptable. This has the direct consequence that Brussels continues to remain under the occupation of a liberal oligarchy. This left-liberal elite is in fact organising a transatlantic elite; it is not European but global; it is not based on nation states, but federal; and it is not democratic, but political, the Prime Minister pointed out.
After the war, a global systems change unprecedented for 500 years will come about, Mr Orbán said. In the coming long decades, but perhaps even centuries, Asia will be the world’s dominant centre, he said, making specific mention of China, India, Pakistan and Indonesia. Demography is on the side of Asia, the technological advantage is there in ever more areas, there is a capital advantage there, its military might compared with the West is evening out, the most money will be in Asia, Asians will be the world’s largest companies, best universities, the world’s best research institutes and largest stock exchanges, he listed.
Mr Orbán said Donald Trump is working to find the American answer to this situation, “In actual fact, he said, Donald Trump’s attempt is probably the last chance of the United States to preserve its world primacy.”
Europe has two options. The first one – that it is now heading for – is to become an outdoor museum and to remain in a subordinated role, subjected to the United States, which the world will continue to marvel at, but no longer has “any growth dynamic left.” The second option that French President Emmanuel Macron has called for is strategic autonomy, “in other words, we must enrol in the race of the global systems change,” he stated.
It is possible to recreate Europe’s ability to attract capital, it is possible to implement major infrastructure developments, especially in Central Europe, we need a European military alliance with a strong European defence industry, research and innovation, we must create European energy self-sufficiency which will not work without nuclear energy, and after the war, we will have to agree on a new deal with Russia, Mr Orbán listed.
According to the Prime Minister, however, the current global systems change is primarily an opportunity, not a threat; our scope for manoeuvre is wider than it has ever been in the past 500 years.
He stressed that 500 years ago, Europe became the winner, while Hungary the loser of the previous global systems change because while for the western half of the continent a new economic scene opened up, the Islamic conquest rendered the country a war zone for a long time and so Hungary – as it was unable to liberate itself – was forced to join a German-Habsburg world.
Mr Orbán took the view that developments in the United States “are unfolding in our favour,” but he added that he does not believe that from overseas we would be given a better economic and political offer than EU membership, but if we were, “we should consider it.”
He added that we have received a maximum offer from China: for them, Hungary’s EU membership is a value “in contrast to the Americans who keep suggesting that we should quit.” China’s offer is that “we take part in each other’s modernisation” even if we must pay attention to the difference in our respective sizes.
The western part of the European Union will no longer return to the nation state format, the Prime Minister concluded, adding that the eastern half of the community can defend the nation state format.
Mr Orbán said the EU has lost the war now under way, the United States will abandon it, and added that Brussels will not be able to finance Ukraine’s war and functioning, meaning that “the European Union will have to pay the price of the war adventure” which “will be high and will negatively affect us, too.”
According to Mr Orbán, it follows from this that “the European Union will accept that the Central European countries will remain in the European Union, whilst remaining on nation state foundations and pursuing an independent foreign policy of their own.”
While they do not like this, they will be compelled to tolerate it, especially because the number of these countries will increase, the Prime Minister stated, taking the view that “from the directions of America, Asia and Europe, the pre-conditions necessary for an independent nation policy are given,” and have designated wide boundaries for our scope for manoeuvre.
When it comes to a global systems change, we will also need “an overarching Hungarian strategy,” the Prime Minister stated. He said we will continue and complete the policy action plans mostly started in 2010 and extending to 2030. However, these will not be enough in the longer term, upon a global systems change that could even last for centuries.
The basis of the overarching Hungarian strategy is connectivity in which we do not allow ourselves to be locked into either of the now-developing western and eastern world economies; we must be present in both, and we will not join the war against the East or the development of technical and trade blocs, Mr Orbán stressed. He added that we must gather friends and partners, not economic or ideological enemies; meaning that rather than teaming up with someone, we will pursue the harder path of independence.
The Prime Minister pointed out that sovereignty protection resting on economic foundations was an equally important principle. National champions, competitive medium-sized businesses, companies producing for the local markets and small and medium-sized enterprises constitute these economic foundations.
This is the Hungarian economy that is able to constitute the basis of sovereignty, the Prime Minister laid down. Mr Orbán said there are competitive national champions also abroad in the banking sector, in the energy sector, in the food industry, in the production of agricultural raw materials, in information technology, in telecommunications, in the media, in the construction industry, in real estate development, in the pharmaceutical industry, in the defence industry, in logistics and through universities to some extent also in the knowledge industry.
The sector of medium-sized businesses numbering some 15,000 is also competitive, and in the 2025 “peace budget” the Hungarian government will launch major programmes for small and medium-sized enterprises, he pointed out.
In his speech, Mr Orbán described the reinforcement of the country’s financial independence, the reduction of the sovereign debt to 30 per cent and the emergence of Hungary as a global lender as important priorities.
It is important that according to the strategy, we must remain a production hub; we must not change to a services-centred economy. Mr Orbán added that we must not make the mistake of the West, namely to hire guest workers for the performance of certain production jobs because if that happens, it starts a process of social disintegration that will be difficult to stop.
The Prime Minister said for the implementation of this strategy, Hungarian society must have a firm and flexible social structure, and the stopping of the demographic decline constitutes the basis of this.
“We started out well, but we have now come to a halt,” the Prime Minister said in evaluation, observing that we must regain momentum; by 2035, Hungary will have to reach a self-sustaining level in a demographic sense, whilst ruling out the importation of population through migration.
In the event of the adoption of the “peace budget,” according to plans, the tax benefit for children will have to be doubled, in two steps, not in one, but within a year, in order to regain the momentum of the demographic improvement, Mr Orbán outlined, adding that in the meantime we must continuously attract those from Western Europe who would like to live in a Christian-national country. Their number will gradually increase, “there should be no automatic mechanism, we are now in the position to pick.”
He said it is important to create the proprietary and financial independence of the middle classes – meaning families – as well as to preserve full employment, “and the key to that is to maintain the current relationship between work and the Roma community.”
“There are jobs, but without work you can’t earn a living – this is the essence of the deal and the offer,” the Prime Minister said in summary.
He added that the current overarching Hungarian strategy is still “raw and rigid,” meaning that it is not readily digestible and understandable; it will take another good six months to reach that stage.
According to the Prime Minister, the overarching Hungarian strategy must rest on national foundations. It must include all territories inhabited by Hungarians, and must connect to all Hungarians living in the world, meaning that the system of grants and subsidies serving the stability of Hungarian society must also be extended to territories inhabited by Hungarians beyond the borders.
He pointed out that within the foreseeable future, all grants which serve the stability and flexibility of Hungarian society – such as the family support system – will have to be extended to all territories inhabited by Hungarians, including those beyond the borders.
The Prime Minister said the Hungarian village system must be preserved. Villages are not symbols of backwardness. City-level services must be provided in villages as well, and cities will have to accept a share of the financial burden of this.
Regarding the protection of sovereignty, Mr Orbán stressed that the essence of this lay in protecting national differentness. In addition to preserving our language, a further means of this is to avoid a zero religious state when Christianity no longer offers a moral compass and guidance.
The Prime Minister pointed out that policies must be adjusted to our national character. The collective essence that we must grasp is freedom which we must also build inward. Not only the freedom of the nation, but the personal freedom of Hungarian individuals must be built as well. For a Hungarian, order is not a value in or for itself, but a state of affairs necessary for freedom in which we can live undisturbed. “My house is my house, it’s my castle, it’s my life, and I will decide for myself what makes me feel good,” he said.
The changing of the world order will be a long process – taking 20 to 25 yeas – during which there will be debates. Our opponents will say that instead of an overarching national strategy, we need to integrate. Therefore, they will continually attack us and work for a change of course. They will question not only the content, but also the necessity of the overarching strategy, Mr Orbán said, pointing out at the same time that we must take on this fight.
Regarding the problem of timescale, he said the implementation of the last phase of the strategy will be incumbent on young people today in their twenties and thirties. Therefore, “already now and we” must start recruiting young people, adding that the national camp only comes forward when the bugle calls and can only gather under flags held high. Therefore, we must find brave young fighters with national feelings.
In answer to a question from members of the audience relating to the “diversity” of the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games and in response to a suggestion aimed at repressing Hungarian gender propaganda, Mr Orbán appealed for calm.
We should not insult the French, even if we feel insulted and hurt by what we saw, he said. He pointed out that the French are our allies now and will be also in the future on a number of points, and there are many more overlaps than we would think. We will have to cooperate with someone, the Prime Minister indicated.
Mr Orbán said “at the end of the day, every nation has the right to show its true colours; that’s what we saw.”
He said in answer to another question about the madness of Europe that what appears to us madness – that people in Western Europe are behaving irrationally – is in fact not madness or irrational behaviour, but a completely different construction of the world. At the same time, states will continue to exist and they will be our partners in the European Union “in this mad state.”
He said in a certain respect he even enjoys the meetings of the European Council. He as a Central European prime minister must hold up two matrices at the same time – his own and theirs – and must also continually seek to translate the complex relationship between the two. This is the most beautiful facet of politics in an intellectual sense, the Prime Minister stated.
