In a joint interview with security policy expert György Nógrádi, the Prime Minister took the view that there was talk about the Russo-Ukrainian war as if it were an open-ended war, but it was not.
“The Ukrainians have lost the war. Russia has won this war,” he stated, adding that the question is when and under what circumstances the western countries behind Ukraine will admit that this has happened, and what will follow from this.
He stressed that the Ukrainians were in an extremely difficult situation, the Ukrainian president in particular. He is not in control even of his own affairs as the only reason why Ukraine is not capitulating is that the Europeans – and less so, but also the Americans – are supplying them with weapons and money.
He recalled that the Hungarian government had always said that that the European institutions or the French and the Germans “hand in hand,” should negotiate with the Russians.
Europe would have been able to keep its own fate in its hands if we Europeans had negotiated with the Russians about Europe’s future. Now, however, the Russians will be negotiating with the Americans about a number of issues, including Europe’s future, but we are still not negotiating, he said in the context of the Russian-US summit due to be held on Friday.
“If you’re not sitting at the negotiating table, you’re on the menu,” he observed.
Regarding the fact that from among European leaders, the US president cited the opinion of the Hungarian prime minister in a statement, Mr Orbán said there is no point in thinking too much about one’s own importance because “that will lead to trouble.” We should see this instead as a reflection of the fact that the number of years spent in politics lends you prestige and authority. He indicated that as in Europe today he had been in office the longest, “it seems quite evident” that when someone is interested in something, they ask the Hungarian prime minister among the first ones on the list.
In his view, this statement is not so much about him as about the country’s stability as Hungary has had the same political leadership for a long time, and this is “a fantastic advantage” in diplomacy.
The Prime Minister also explained why he had vetoed the European Council’s declaration related to the Russian-US summit. He stressed that the declaration contained a sentence about Ukraine’s European Union membership, despite the fact that the Hungarian people had already decided that “Ukraine will not become a member of the European Union,” and he would not sign a declaration that was contrary to this, he laid down.
He also added that Europe must show authority and have a chance for success, rather than be weak and pathetic. “If two parties sit down and you haven’t been invited, you’re not going to grab your phone, you’re not going to run about the place, you’re not going to shout from the sidelines, you don’t want to stress your own importance,” the Prime Minister said, taking the view that this kind of behaviour is pathetic.
He said at present, Europe does not have a chance for success because European leaders have lost “their desire for greatness.” “Europe doesn’t want to be great. It only wants to live well. But if you want to live well, you must also be great and strong,” he observed, adding that this connection is not yet seen as evident in Brussels.
The Prime Minister said that at the Trump-Putin summit, beyond the war, the parties will also talk about the overarching issues of the world economy. The question is, he continued, whether in the wake of all the conflicts, the world economy will be united, whether a system of cooperation resting on a new state of balance will evolve, or it will split into two and new blocs will develop. This will have a great impact on Hungary’s economic development as well, he added.
The world is not handling the situation particularly well that instead of helping in the conflicts taking place in other parts of the world, the Americans and the Europeans have dug themselves into the Russo-Ukrainian war, and all other troubles of the world have been relegated. Breaking out of this situation, President Trump is trying to settle the open issues one by one, he observed.
The Russo-Ukrainian war is important, but there will also be issues on a par with or perhaps even more important than this on the negotiating table, Mr Orbán stressed.
The Prime Minister pointed out that the world’s energy trade system must be clarified. One of the questions is what will happen to the sanctions and whether a player or two will remain shut out of the world’s energy supply which will lead to “backdoor” solutions such as the Russian energy supplies to India which are generating further sanctions. Another possibility is to abandon the policy of sanctions in a stage or two, and to agree on the most important issues, he stated.
Hungary’s fate and future depends on these questions, on “how much energy we are able to buy on the world market and at what price,” the Prime Minister said.
Mr Orbán said another important question is whether the Russians will be allowed to invest in America and the Americans in Russia, in which sectors and under what conditions.
The Prime Minister pointed out that world politics and the world economy were based on a balance of power; if one player changes any one of the important elements of this, the other player will respond.
This is what happened in the Russo-Ukrainian war: the Ukrainians announced that they would move from the previous role of buffer zone to the role of a western ally state. In response, the Russians stated that they did not want to have a neighbour with a very long shared border which was a part of the western alliance system, had western weapons, maintained a large army and would eventually also be admitted to NATO. The Russians indicated that they were even ready to take steps in order to prevent this from happening, the Prime Minister explained.
Mr Orbán recalled that between 1990 and 1999, Hungary, too, had been such a buffer state between East and West after having quit the Warsaw Pact and before joining NATO.
After Hungary’s NATO accession, the Ukrainians found themselves in the role of buffer zone. The Ukrainians announced that they did not want this fate any further – they had a right to do so – and that they would want to become a part of the Western integration. With this, they upset the balance of power, the Russians responded, and now, we must find a new state of balance, Mr Orbán pointed out.
In this game, Ukraine’s existence as a state is at stake. The West, trying to salvage the wrecks, wants at least what is left of Ukraine to become part of the western structures, he said.
The Russians will either accept this or they will not, the Americans will give their blessing to this or they will not, but it is certain that it is not Ukraine that will decide on its own fate, the Prime Minister stressed.
Hungary has a vested interest in not being in the same system of integration as Ukraine under any circumstances because Ukraine’s European Union membership would be a straight path to Hungary’s impoverishment, Mr Orbán stated, adding at the same time that “we can’t be heartless or irrational,” we must do something with the Ukrainians.
He said the European Union must enter into a strategic alliance with Ukraine, but must not offer membership because if Ukraine is admitted, they cannot be banished anymore, and Hungary “can only stand to lose” on Ukraine’s EU membership.
Mr Nógrádi observed that while the Russians had made it clear that Ukraine could not become a member of NATO, they had never protested against Ukraine joining the EU because they believed that Ukraine would destroy the EU from inside.
Mr Orbán said in response that today, the EU is an economic union in distress, fighting for its life which has lost its competitiveness, maintaining the welfare state seems impossible, there are day-to-day livelihood problems, and internal social tensions “are causing the splintering” of the institution of democracy.
“We are facing enormous challenges, and so we must focus all our energy on ourselves,” we must use all our money for our own competitiveness, for modernising ourselves and for maintaining the middle classes, or else the whole European democratic system will fall apart, the Prime Minister warned.
Mr Orbán also spoke about the fact that after World War II, Europe had lost control of its own continent, had been unable to take control of its own fate, and also today, there was no European strategy, Europe was unable to define itself, and so Hungary itself was unable to adjust to a European self-definition.
Therefore, Hungary must create its own national strategy because if we were to adjust ourselves to the Europeans, “we would be in a war up to our necks” and “the Hungarian economy would be on its knees,” the Prime Minister stated.
Mr Orbán highlighted that Hungary’s greatest strategic advantage was its stability, and this was owing to the fact that it did not have a coalition government.
It is key that Hungary should have a much more stable government, capable of taking action and making decisions, than the European average of the day, or else Hungary will sink into European decline, the Prime Minister stated.
Regarding the Hungarians of Transcarpathia, the Prime Minister stressed that the Hungarian government resorted to all available means to protect them, but the situation is alarming because in a country where there is a war, the scope for taking action under international law is limited. The Ukrainians say that they are engaged in a life-and-death struggle, and while they understand our problems, they are only secondary. This may change if there is peace and the great powers decide what Ukraine’s role will be.
Mr Nógrádi added to this that at this point, the European Union did not have the courage to engage in conflicts, despite the fact that everyone could see that corruption in Ukraine was enormous, and a part of the weapons sent there disappeared on the black market within seconds.
He also said the percentage of Hungarians in Transcarpathia has fallen to one half, and while there is not much talk about this, there are ever more persons in Hungary who are not allowed to enter Ukraine because they have been blacklisted. In his view, nothing works that Europe once proclaimed as law and justice, and the only Ukrainian answer to all these questions is that they are at war.
Mr Orbán said the Ukrainians launched grave secret service operations against Hungary, and have become embedded in Hungarian politics, public thinking and institutions. This is a serious problem that we are struggling with on a daily basis, he added. He observed that as this was a country at war, and Hungary was Ukraine’s hinterland, there was nothing extraordinary about the fact that they were seeking to influence Hungary’s position, “however, we don’t want to allow this to happen.”
Mr Orbán stressed that the Ukrainians “are this impertinent with us” – while in a certain sense “they are in our hands” – because they know that we do not have a vested interest in destroying Ukraine. A collapsing Ukraine in Hungary’s immediate neighbourhood poses a threat and a risk to public security and the life of the Hungarian minority which Hungary does not wish to run, he stated.
We have no interest in Ukraine’s collapse, “though we could arrange this within a single day,” he observed. The Prime Minister argued that Ukraine received a considerable part of its electricity and gas supply from Hungary, and should there be an accident, “should a few pylons come down, should a couple of cables break, Ukraine would stop.”
While the Ukrainians speak to us “the way a decent person wouldn’t, they are at the same time at our mercy.” We need a stable and functional Ukraine, and the Ukrainians take unfairly advantage of this situation, the Prime Minister stated.
