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Dear President,
Please find below a summary evaluation of my recent discussions with leaders of Ukraine, Russia, China, Türkiye and President Donald J. Trump, as well as a few suggestions for your consideration.
1. It is a general observation that the intensity of the military conflict will radically escalate in the near future.
2. I personally witnessed that the warring parties are determined to involve themselves deeper into the conflict, and neither of them would like to make initiatives for a ceasefire or peace negotiations. Therefore we can assume that tensions will not decrease and the parties will not start searching for a way out of the conflict without significant external involvement.
3. There are three global players that are able to influence developments: the European Union, the United States and China. We also have to take into consideration as an important regional player Türkiye as the only successful mediator between Ukraine and Russia since the outbreak of the hostilities in 2022.
4. China will continue its policy also formulated in international documents calling for a ceasefire and peace talks. However, China will play a more active role only if the chance for success of its engagement is close to certain. In their evaluation this is not the case at the moment.
5. With regards to the United States, I experienced at the NATO Summit and during my talks with President Trump that the US is at the moment heavily preoccupied with the presidential campaign. The incumbent President is making immense efforts to stay in the race. It is obvious that he is not capable of modifying the current US pro-war policy and therefore cannot be expected to start a new policy. As we have witnessed many times over the past years, in these situations bureaucracy without political leadership will continue to go down the previous path.
6. During my talks with President Trump, I came to a conclusion that foreign policy will play only a small role in his campaign, which is dominated by internal political questions. Therefore we can expect no peace initiative coming from him until the elections. I can however surely state that shortly after his election victory, he will not wait until his inauguration, but will be ready to act as a peace broker immediately. He has detailed and well-founded plans for this.
7. I am more than convinced that in the likely outcome of the victory of President Trump, the proportion of the financial burden between the US and the EU will significantly change to the EU’s disadvantage when it comes to the financial support of Ukraine.
8. Our European strategy in the name of transatlantic unity has copied the pro-war policy of the US. We have not had a sovereign and independent European strategy or political action plan up to now. I propose discussing whether the continuation of this policy is rational in the future. In the current situation we can find a window of opportunity with a strong moral and rational basis to begin a new chapter in our policy. In this new chapter we could make an effort to decrease tensions and/or create the conditions for a temporary ceasefire and/or start peace negotiations.
9. I propose initiating a discussion on the following proposals:
a. the initiative to conduct high-level political talks with China on the modalities of the next peace conference;
b. while maintaining the current high-level political contacts with Ukraine, reopening direct lines of diplomatic communication with Russia and the rehabilitation of such direct contacts in our political communication;
c. the launch of a coordinated political offensive towards the Global South whose appreciation we have lost concerning our position on the war in Ukraine resulting in the global isolation of the transatlantic community.
10. I hope that my reports and suggestions may prove to be a useful contribution to possible proposals and initiatives you will present to EU leaders at an appropriate occasion and in a convenient format.
Yours sincerely,
Viktor ORBÁN
Budapest, 12 July 2024
