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The Prime Minister said the EU has made a decision which appears to seal its own competitiveness, both figuratively and literally. This is an economic Cold War: today, the European Union is deciding to impose punitive tariffs on the Chinese economy; this is something that Hungary opposes, he added, observing that the Germans, too, oppose this measure. Mr Orbán said an economic Cold War is an enormous threat because it primarily affects Hungary’s export-oriented economy. He argued that the Hungarian economy is based on the idea that the Hungarians manufacture here at home far more products than they need, and sell these products for good money and at a fair profit. “We always sell more than we import, we have an excess here, this is what we live off.” If world trade is paralysed, if it falls into a western bloc and an eastern bloc, then selling Hungarian products will become more difficult, and this will have a negative impact on the day-to-day lives of families: if there is no growth, jobs are lost, unemployment returns, salaries decrease, he detailed. Mr Orbán said we must fight against the economic Cold War because this is an issue that is most closely connected to the day-to-day living standards of families. He said they have introduced the policy of economic neutrality because Hungary wants to trade with both blocs, rather than being stuck in one or the other.
The foundations of economic neutrality are being laid at present, and what follows from this is the neutrality of markets, investments, financing and energy, he pointed out, adding that they gathered together the measures related to this at the cabinet meeting held in Geszt this week. He said they started the autumn season with this cabinet meeting where the task in hand was “to set the ratios,” to determine which issues are important and how much time to dedicate to each. Now, there is an enormous temptation, he continued, for Hungary to divert its attention to foreign policy and international affairs as there is an ongoing war between two Slavic nations, the Russo-Ukrainian war, and there is another in the Middle East between Iran and Israel, while Hungary currently holds the presidency of the European Union. He added that “we must focus on ourselves primarily,” on the economy. “We must continue to focus the bulk of our energy on home affairs, the economy, economic policy, economic measures, day-to-day life, families, jobs and salaries,” he said.
Mr Orbán also said economic neutrality is provoking enormous debates, and when they now observe that “they’re kicking our backsides, are tugging at our jacket sleeves or digging their teeth into our ankles or calves,” that is the reason for it. “If you try to find the logic behind what the German, the French and the American ambassadors have recently said and the attacks levelled in Brussels against Hungary, if you look behind the words, you will see behind every single attack that they’re trying to divert Hungary off the path of economic neutrality and to beat, to cudgel, to force us back into the bloc where they are, where I think there is no growth, no progress, no future,” he pointed out, laying down that we do not want to go back to that bloc, but want to be where we are because if we do things right, then with the policy of economic neutrality we should be able to increase this year’s growth of 1.5-1.8 per cent to between 3 and 6 per cent next year. This means growth, jobs, rising wages, higher state revenues, in which case they can also give a pay rise to people working in the state sector. He is convinced that economic neutrality will bring about the development which will result in welfare and higher living standards, the Prime Minister said in summary, stressing that we must not allow ourselves to be beaten back into the bloc. He observed that people in Brussels will not accept of their own accord that this is Hungary’s position. We will have to stand up for ourselves, we will have to defend this position, we will have to fight. We will have to be successful because in politics the most important argument is success, he said. He added that if next year we have a growth of 4 per cent and they a growth of zero, one or two per cent, it will be very difficult for them to say that ‘you must return to the bloc.’ ‘Why would we do that, given that what you’re doing brings you no benefit at all?’ said the Prime Minister, underlining that “success defends us, we need success.”
Evaluating the state of the Hungarian economy, he highlighted that some sectors are in good shape, but we have difficulties as well. Tourism has had a record year and the food industry is in good shape, too, but the automotive industry “is sick with a cough.” If there is no growth in the West where we want to sell our cars, if there is no one to buy them, then we can’t sell them, he pointed out. What is now observable in the automotive industry is a serious disadvantage, but this will change. On the whole, the most important question is whether the people have jobs, he said, recalling that when they returned to power in 2010, unemployment stood at 12.5 per cent. Compared with this, today, everyone has jobs, there are 60,000 to 70,000 unfilled jobs, there are more jobs than people able and wanting to work. The top priority is to maintain this feature of the Hungarian economy, the featuring of being able to offer at least as many jobs to its own citizens as there are citizens. This is a fantastic feat which is now taken for granted, but it should not be as it is an enormous achievement on the part of the Hungarian economy, businesses, investors and workers alike, Mr Orbán observed.
The Prime Minister also spoke about the fact that we have high-quality, qualified and disciplined workers; if the quality of the Hungarian workforce were inferior to what it is, the percentage of investments would be much lower.
He described inflation as the biggest blow of recent years. With much difficulty, last year, they forced it down to below 10 per cent and it currently stands at 3.5 per cent, but this does not mean that prices have returned to where they were, it only means that they are not rising further, Mr Orbán indicated. At the same time, they can only regulate prices on a temporary basis as it harms the functioning of the economy and cannot be maintained in the longer term. In the longer term there is a single solution to protecting the people against high prices: by pursuing an economic policy which ensures that everyone has an income and jobs and enables employers to increase wages, he said. If wages are higher, it is easier to pay higher prices as well, he pointed out. He observed that he could not promise to push prices back to the ground because that would destroy the economy. Prices can only be regulated during short periods, in especially critical times. What helps in the long run is increasing the pace of pay rises which requires an agreement between employers and workers, he pointed out.
Mr Orbán said at the cabinet meeting they spoke about how within two to three years it would be possible to reach a minimum wage of one thousand euros and how to raise the current average wage of around six hundred thousand forints to a million forints. He said this is possible if they are able to come to an agreement with employers and workers. These negotiations are ongoing, and the minister of the economy was tasked with finalising this agreement by the end of this year. There should be a long-term agreement for several years, with a date and a monthly average income of one million forints at the end, he said in summary.
By his account, the government is facing a major dilemma as regards the issues of tax cuts and the raising of the wages of public sector workers. If they reduce the taxes payable by employers, employers will be able to provide higher wages; if they reduce the taxes payable by workers, people will have more money left in their pockets, However, they can only raise the wages of state sector employees if there are tax revenues, he argued. He admitted that today, the salaries of public sector workers were not keeping up with those of the private sector; except in areas where the government launched comprehensive pay rise programmes, including in the case of teachers, physicians and nurses. At the same time, there are sectors which “have fallen way behind,” he said, mentioning public administration workers, culture and social services. He made specific mention of workers in water management who are “rather hard up” in his opinion, despite the fact – he said with reference to the flood defence effort – that everyone could see how much their work is needed in times of trouble. He said the next pay rise programme will be implemented in water management.
He stressed at the same time that if economic growth remains between 3 to 6 per cent for 3 to 4 years, this problem will solve itself because “if we’re able to bake a bigger cake, there will be more for everyone.” In his view, there is one exception – family support – on which the government will not compromise. He stressed that children are a personal issue, but also a public interest because if there are children, there is a future, and so we must not give up on the principle of affording a fair treatment to parents raising children. Therefore, the tax benefit available in relation to children must be doubled, he added, indicating that this may take place in two stages, rather than in one, but this measure will have to be adopted next year under any circumstances. “I’m not prepared to budge an inch on this,” he stressed.
He said regardless of their occupations and the wage levels of their occupations, people raising children can expect to see their wage levels and general situation perceivably improve in 2025 and 2026.
Regarding migration, the Prime Minister said “unless Brussels comes to its senses and switches from a policy supporting and attracting migrants to a policy taking action against migration and protecting the borders […] there will be problems not because of the death of the economy, but before that could happen, the conflicts induced by migration will tear the European Union apart and the functioning of the EU will become paralysed.” He stressed that it is best if the mayor of Brussels starts getting ready because if Brussels continues to impose all kinds of penalties on Hungary due to migration, “they will get what they want and we will transport migrants there on buses, to the main square, in a legally regular and impeccable manner.” “Then they can lie in the bed they made for themselves,” Mr Orbán added.
He stressed that people in Europe have had enough of migration, hence the emergence of anti-migration forces that are on the people’s side. The European people no longer tolerate that Brussels bureaucrats, “all sorts of eggheads with abstract thoughts” force upon Europe something which destroys the lives of ordinary Italian, German, French or Hungarian people, he said, adding that the Brussels bureaucrats live in a sheltered world, never go home to worker districts, never take the metro, do not see how the average citizen’s life from Brussels to Munich or Vienna is changing, how the Germans, the French, the Italians are losing the sensation of being at home in their own living environment. In his opinion, this is why Andrej Babis won in the Czech Republic and the Freedom Party in Austria, this is why the AfD did well, this is why Marine Le Pen is “at the gates,” and this is why the Italian prime minister won.
Mr Orbán highlighted that if there is a war in the Middle East, we all immediately “feel the negative consequences” because the world economy becomes cautious and the Hungarian currency starts depreciating.
Mr Orbán recalled that the threat of the escalation of the war had become tangible. Iran fired at Israel as a state, Israel fired back, and now there is a conflict in the territory of a third state, in Lebanon.
It is not irrelevant for Hungary what is happening in the world from an economic point of view, but at the same time, this region is not so far away, what is happening there can have an impact on us also from a security point of view, he warned, recalling how many refugees came from Syria as migrants. He also drew attention to the fact that in Hungary there is a large population of Jewish citizens who are affected by this war directly or indirectly. They deduce their perception of danger not from what is happening in the streets of Budapest, but from what is happening in Israel, whether there are anti-Semitic attacks in Western Europe and whether Jewish communities are safe, he continued, stressing that this war is affecting a certain percentage of Hungarian citizens as directly as possible, and so we must do everything we can to protect them. Following from this, there are also security duties; this is why he was compelled to convene the National Security Cabinet, with a view to guaranteeing the security of every Hungarian citizen, regardless of ethnicity, he observed.
Mr Orbán also spoke about the international group ‘Friends of Peace’ formed the other day, recalling that when Hungary took over the EU presidency, it was inevitable – out of Christian spiritual considerations as well as out of state interests – that it should attempt to do something for peace. “We have a peace mission during this half a year,” he said. “We started with a big push: Kiev, Moscow, Beijing, Donald Trump,” he listed, adding that after this they identified a peace strategy with the recognition at its centre that the warring parties have no intention of concluding a peace with each other. If we allow events to follow their own logic and to continue as they have done to date, the war will only continue with the threat of escalation, including the threat of a world war, he indicated. If it is impossible to achieve any result with the warring parties, we must come to an agreement with the dominant actors of international life on attempting to pursue a world policy which may guide the warring parties towards peace, Mr Orbán said, adding that this is why he had to go to China and to visit the person who he hopes will be the next president of the United States.
The result of all these efforts is that, at our initiative, the international group ‘Friends of Peace’ has been formed as a Brazilian-Chinese duo. It now has more than ten members, three countries have been invited from Europe, he explained, highlighting, however, that we can only initiate things, the task of seeing them through lies with the big countries. There is an ongoing effort which – it is to be hoped in the event of a favourable outcome in the US presidential election – could switch from a pro-war international atmosphere to a pro-peace international atmosphere even in the western world, Mr Orbán said in conclusion.
