Zsolt Törőcsik: In a social media post half an hour ago, Viktor Orbán wrote that President Zelenskyy still hasn’t resumed oil deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline. The Prime Minister also said that it’s known that the pipeline is operational and that the fact it’s not being restarted is due to a political decision by Zelenskyy. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is my guest. Good morning.
Good morning.
Yesterday you sent an open letter calling on the Ukrainian president to restart oil deliveries. Apparently this hasn’t happened today, so no oil is arriving. Have you received a response from Zelenskyy?
No, we haven’t. Our ambassador was summoned and they said all sorts of things, but I don’t consider that to be a serious response. I haven’t received a response addressed to me. When this interview is over, I’ll immediately conduct a telephone consultation with the Slovak prime minister in order to coordinate further joint steps – because we must ensure that Zelenskyy opens the pipeline and that crude oil comes to Hungary again through the Druzhba pipeline.
What other steps could be taken? The Slovaks have already cut off the electricity supply, haven’t they? What could be done – either as a joint measure, or by Hungary acting alone?
When a country is attacked… Now we’re being attacked: we’ve been placed under an oil blockade. For the time being they’re not targeting our people or our cities, but our economy. Because if there’s no crude oil coming through the Druzhba pipeline, that will lead to economic chaos. First, according to an assessment of the situation provided to us by experts from MOL, the price of gasoline will rise to a thousand forints per litre; and then this will cause price increases in the economy that will completely disrupt normal functioning. It’s no exaggeration to say that chaos could ensue. So now we’re under attack; and in such cases defensive measures must be taken. We’ve started with the simplest option: “If you don’t give us oil, we won’t give you diesel.” The second step could have been, “If you don’t give us oil, we won’t give you electricity”, because we supply a lot of electricity to Ukraine. But there are Hungarians living on the other side of the border, so we’ve put this option aside as a last resort. Then we said, “If you don’t give us oil, if Zelenskyy doesn’t give us oil, then we won’t give you money.” Even though we weren’t giving the money ourselves, our consent is needed, so we can veto it and block the 90 billion euros: it’s a loan that Hungary managed to stay out of, but even so our consent is still needed for the loan to go ahead. And that’s what happened. Then we said that if the oil doesn’t come, the twentieth package of sanctions against Russia – which is about to be finalised in Brussels – won’t be finalised. And then we said that if the oil doesn’t come, we won’t support any measures in Brussels that are important to Ukraine; there are quite a few of those, and several of them require Hungary’s consent. That’s where we are now.
Aren’t these responses a little harsh? Because on Monday, when Péter Szijjártó announced that several measures would be blocked, the EU foreign ministers responded to this decision with astonishing criticism and very, very harsh words.
That’s because the poor Western Europeans don’t know Ukrainians and don’t understand the circumstances in Central Europe. They believe what Zelenskyy says, that there are technical reasons why oil can’t be delivered – which is obviously a lie. Over there they believe it – their world is still that naive. When a Ukrainian tells us something, we check it three times – which is what we advised them to do, and then they calmed down. We said, “Okay, then let’s go out together and see for ourselves.” But the Ukrainians aren’t willing to do that for the time being: they’re not willing to accept an inspection and fact-finding mission. So I think Western Europeans are starting to sober up, and every day more and more people are realising that the Ukrainians are lying. President Zelenskyy is lying, he isn’t telling the truth. There are no technical obstacles to starting oil deliveries to Hungary. You used the expression, “Aren’t these responses a little harsh?” We who live here in this corner of the world know that Ukrainians are capable of anything. It was no accident that I’ve had to deploy soldiers to critical energy facilities in order to guard our key installations – together with law enforcement and disaster management agencies, and with the involvement of the police. The Ukrainians are capable of anything. Let’s not forget: it was the Ukrainians who blew up Nord Stream. Nord Stream ran outside Ukrainian territory and was owned by several companies, but essentially by Germany. So Ukraine is a country capable – on the open sea – of blowing up the fundamental infrastructure of Germany’s energy supply and economic functioning. That’s state terrorism! This is who we’re up against. Let’s not misunderstand the situation. And when we take action, let’s not misjudge how firm we need to be, because this is the only way to talk to the Ukrainians. This is what I’ve learned over the past four years.
Is there any specific information that led to the decision to strengthen the protection of critical energy infrastructure? Because on the other side, the opposition says that this is scaremongering; and some, such as Péter Magyar, have even suggested that the Government is preparing a false flag operation.
Well, I suggest that Péter Magyar and the opposition study the facts. I repeat: Germany is a country of 84 million people, not ten million like Hungary, and its army isn’t the same size as ours, and its economic power is much greater than Hungary’s; but the Ukrainians dared to blow up the German Nord Stream pipeline, causing disruption to the German economy. So this is what we’re facing. What the opposition says is a fairy tale. Tisza and Péter Magyar are saying what they’re saying because the Ukrainians are paying them. Let’s be honest! So the Ukrainians have infiltrated Hungarian politics. We have precise knowledge that they’re financing the Tisza Party. The trip to Ukraine by the President of the Tisza Party was organised by a well-known spy, or at least one identified and known by the Hungarian services, who works for the Ukrainian authorities and the Ukrainian state. So the Ukrainians are deeply involved in the Tisza Party. By the way, although I don’t consider it a friendly move, what I can understand is that after the election they’ll need a government that will be pro-Ukrainian – unlike the current national government. So I understand that the Ukrainians are working to ensure that Hungary has a government that will disconnect Hungary from Russian oil, that will give money to Ukraine – or at least not hinder the flow of money from Brussels to Ukraine – and that will ultimately join the ranks of the warring countries. Because throughout Europe, everyone – apart from us and the Slovaks, but now even the Czechs are changing their tone – is talking about the war as if it were “our” war, as if it were the Western Europeans’ war. And in their minds it is their war; but in our minds it isn’t ours. We feel sorry for the Ukrainians, we understand what’s happening, but this war has nothing to do with us. We’re not participating in it, we won’t allow ourselves to be dragged into it, we won’t provide weapons; and we certainly won’t send soldiers – because that moment isn’t far off either. So now we need to be sensible. The threat of war has never been as close to Hungary as it is now.
We’ll talk about this later, but as we’ve looked at the national security aspect of this debate, let’s also look at the energy security aspect; because there’s also the question of what the Croatians will do – whether they’ll allow Russian oil to arrive by ship. MOL asked them this yesterday, but no response has been received from Croatia yet.
There’s an ongoing debate on this. I think we should start by saying that the Croatians are our friends. There may be disputes, and there are, but Croatia and the Croatian people are our friends. It’s been this way for eight hundred years. So this isn’t a friendship that began yesterday morning, but a fantastic historical legacy and asset. This must be preserved. I often discuss this with the Croatian prime minister – even when there are disputes – and with the Croatian president; I believe that it’s in the interest of both Croatia and Hungary to maintain friendly relations between our two countries. Not only because many Hungarians go there on vacation and spend a lot of money in Croatia, but also because it’s a historical tradition, and because there’s a significant Croatian minority in Hungary. They might not be numerous, but they’re well organised, strong, very likeable and very serious people. So I can only say the best about the Croatian community living in Hungary. Therefore, despite all conflicts and disputes, we must strive to maintain the historical friendship between Croatia and Hungary. We’re not requesting something from the Croatians, but we do expect them to fulfil their contractual obligations. So today, when a MOL tanker arrives at a Croatian port, the oil must be unloaded from the tanker and transported to Hungary via pipeline. For Croatia this isn’t an option, but an obligation. And they can’t refuse to deliver this oil to Hungary. This is another pipeline. The Hungarian system, the Hungarian oil supply system, consists of a main pipeline, which is called Druzhba [“Friendship”], which comes from Ukraine and transports Russian oil. And there’s a supplementary pipeline in the south, which is controlled by Croatia, and we can bring in additional quantities by sea. Now there’s a proposal from the Croatians to make this pipeline the main pipeline, which we’re not opposed to, but it will require all kinds of developments and tests. According to the Croatians, even now they could transport much more. This is a matter of debate with the EU; we’ve agreed to test this capacity and then see what’s true and what isn’t true. For the time being we see this as a supplementary option in terms of Hungary’s security and energy security. But two pipelines are needed, one main and one supplementary, so that if there’s a problem with one, then the other can continue to operate. This is why I consider the energy policy programme announced by the energy politician parachuted in [to the Tisza Party] from Shell to be dangerous: he says that we must disconnect ourselves from Russian oil; but then we’ll be dependent on a single pipeline, and we’ll be at the mercy of whoever controls that pipeline. You see, diversification – we often use this term – means expanding our transportation options, increasing their number. If I cut off a functioning pipeline, say, Druzhba, then I haven’t diversified, I haven’t expanded, but instead I’ve narrowed our options. So I don’t understand why the Tisza “energy man”, who came from Shell, is talking such nonsense – unless it’s because at the moment there’s no oil coming through the Druzhba pipeline and the Croatians won’t let Russian oil through, so we’ll have to buy other types of oil, say, from Shell. It’s as simple as that.
And there’s another question here, isn’t there? No one disputes that if something can come through a pipe, it’s obviously cheaper than having to bring it by ship, unload it, and then pump it through. But you’re talking about gasoline prices of 1,000 forints a litre if oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline continue to be blocked. The opposition, however, says that this is just scaremongering, because in neighbouring countries that have switched away from Russian energy, gasoline costs the same as in Hungary. Scaremongering or reality?
The situation is that I start every morning by reviewing the reports from the intelligence services. These always include economic data, and for years now they’ve always included the situation on the energy market and energy prices – with a particular focus on crude oil. Yesterday’s report said that Russian oil is 13 dollars cheaper per barrel than Western oil; but if I factor in the cost of transportation, one by pipeline and the other by tanker, the price difference goes from 13 to 20. I don’t want to get bogged down in a numbers war. There’s a major company in Hungary that’s an unquestioned expert in energy: MOL. We receive official data from MOL. We follow MOL’s statements, and from them it’s quite clear that if there’s no Russian oil, there will be a huge price increase: gasoline will cost a thousand forints, and there will be economic chaos. But MOL will explain that – it’s not my job. But now that I also have to deal with energy issues, I can see that it’s not possible to simply replace Russian oil with non-Russian oil, because the refinery in Százhalombatta… There are different types of oil, which vary significantly from one another, and refineries are adapted to this. So if tomorrow morning there’s no Russian oil, it doesn’t mean that we can refine other types of oil at the Százhalombatta refinery: they aren’t interchangeable. It would require serious investment and conversion work to change the composition of the oil processed there. But I repeat: this isn’t a technical issue for the Prime Minister to deal with, and that’s why we have MOL, a company of outstanding international standing.
The whole thing started with the Russo–Ukrainian war, which marked its fourth anniversary this week – time flies very quickly. One thinks back to four years ago and how everyone was glued to the news and really worried, with many people applying for passports, even in Hungary. Compared to that, it seems that – this is a bad word, but still – we’ve become accustomed to these news reports. Compared to four years ago, has the danger decreased in parallel with the feeling of fear?
It’s true that people can get used to good things, and they can also learn to live with bad things. And we’ve learned to live with war. Four years is a long time. And without wanting to praise myself here, we’ve been able to live with the war because everyone could be sure that Hungary is led by a national government which, when the war broke out in February 2022, before the election back then, made a promise to the Hungarian people. I said, personally, that I’d form a government that wouldn’t allow Hungary to be dragged into war. Four years have passed, and indeed we haven’t allowed that to happen. We have a government that’s made it clear that despite pressure from Kiev/Kyiv and blackmail from Brussels, we shall not allow Hungarian soldiers to be sent to Ukraine, we shall not allow Hungarian money to be taken to Ukraine, and we shall not allow Hungarian military equipment to be sent to Ukraine. So we shall stay out of this war. This is a government of non-involvement, I might say – and it shall not be involved in this war. People can rest easy, because they know that this is how it is. A national government equals security: a national government equals no war. Putting aside modesty, I can say that as long as I am Prime Minister, everyone can sleep peacefully, because we shall not be forced into that. Obviously, there will be an election soon, and I suggest that everyone keep this in mind. Now, as far as the threat of war is concerned, I must say that since the outbreak of the war, we’ve never been as close to war as we are now. And the threat of war is growing day by day. There are several reasons for this. First, the Americans have withdrawn from war operations and support for Ukraine. They’re continuing their peace efforts, but they’re reaching the end of their tether, and their patience is running out. And if no solution is found in the near future, the Americans will also withdraw from diplomacy aimed at peace-making. Then it will be left to Europe and Russia. And European leaders want war. So European leaders want to go into Ukraine. Three or four days ago the European Parliament passed a resolution, and I have a passage from it with me, it should be here somewhere, in which they simply say that they support and urge – the European Parliament urges – for a “multinational reassurance force” to be sent to Ukraine. So the large Western states of the European Union – excluding of course the Czechs, Slovaks and us, but the big ones – want to go into Ukraine. They’ve decided that they’ll win this war on the front line. They say this every day, and I sit among them. We discuss, or they discuss, how they’re going to win the war. And they’re determined and resolved that this war must be won: they don’t want peace or the front lines to be frozen where they are now – they want to defeat the Russians. They have a plan for how they want to do this. It would take too long to explain it here, but I think it’s a flawed strategic plan. But it’s definitely a plan that includes winning this war on the front lines. So they want to go in. And the fourth thing that exacerbates the danger is that the Ukrainians want to join the European Union. The European Union’s “basic law”, its “constitution”, its treaty, clearly states that if any EU Member State is in danger, the others must rush to its aid. And in a situation in which EU leaders already want to go into Ukraine and Ukraine itself wants to join the EU, the legal basis for them going in would be created, and they’d go in the next morning. So I can say that the next two to three years are likely to expose Hungary to the most dangerous scenarios. Therefore we – the Hungarian nation, all of us – must focus our energies, and the next government must also focus its energies on keeping Hungary out of the war. This is a very big task, very difficult, and day after day I feel as if I’m being ground between these millstones. What’s needed here is routine, experience, gumption – I don’t know what other words to use here, in Budapest. So one must have one’s head screwed on properly, one’s heart in the right place, and it’s very important that the country stand united behind the Government and the Prime Minister, with the aim of us staying out of this war, whatever it takes.
At the same time, Péter Magyar also says, for example, that he could disagree with the European People’s Party or the European Union on many issues – such as Ukraine’s accelerated accession. Why do you think the current government is the guarantee that this will be achieved?
Well, everyone can decide for themselves what to believe. I don’t believe it. It’s that simple.
We can see how much pressure there is on Hungary from many sides. How can these plans be prevented through a national petition? Is it an adequate instrument for this?
Well, this is related to your previous question. The Tisza Party held a vote on whether to support Ukraine’s EU membership. And they supported it! So how can they say no? The national petition had to be launched because only the Government, only the Hungarian government, says that we won’t give Hungarian money to the Ukrainians. The Tisza Party and DK [Democratic Coalition] are constantly urging us to join the countries supporting Ukraine. How could they say no when they’re urging us to join them? So we have to hold a petition in order to settle this issue in Hungary. Hungarian money must not be sent to Brussels! It doesn’t matter what the opposition says. And thirdly, how can you say no to the Ukrainians when they’re financing you? They’re providing Tisza with very high-value IT services free of charge. They’re organising their campaign. This isn’t secret collusion, it’s open collusion! The Ukrainians even say that they’re working to prevent Hungary from having a national government. So much for who can say “no”…
Let’s also talk about the economic situation. Those who are eligible have received their thirteenth month’s pension and the first instalment of their fourteenth month’s pension. Increased and income tax-free salaries have been paid. At the same time, the war is still with us, and we can see the problems facing the European economy. Will the Hungarian economy be able to keep up this pace? I’m putting that in quotation marks.
Well, the situation is that there are layoffs in Europe. In Hungary in recent years we’ve become accustomed to full employment and a labour shortage, rather than a labour surplus or excess. And this is why it’s very difficult for Hungarians to imagine that there could suddenly be mass unemployment in Hungary. But Europe is heading in that direction. The situation is that in the past year more than 200,000 jobs have been lost in Poland, 161,000 in the Czech Republic, 144,000 in Romania, and 129,000 in Germany. Entire sectors are collapsing. The European aluminium industry has essentially been brought to its knees. The European chemical industry is about to be brought to its knees. So we’re facing mass unemployment and the disappearance of certain industries. The reason for this is that – due to the war and sanctions – energy prices are three to four times higher than in the United States or China. As a result, everything that’s manufactured in America and China – such as aluminium, chemical products and motor vehicles – has a much lower production cost. They can manufacture more cheaply, and if they manufacture more cheaply, they can sell their products more cheaply; and these products are pushing European products out of the markets. This is what’s happening in Europe today. So I think this is a tremendous feat, a huge achievement – not by the Government, by the way, but by the players in the Hungarian economy. I’m grateful to the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, but also to the trade unions – who are generally ready to conclude agreements – for being able to conclude agreements ensuring that Hungary continues to enjoy full employment, and that industries aren’t destroyed. The automotive industry, which is in danger in Europe, is in Hungary constantly developing and growing. Our transition from the production of internal combustion cars to the production of electric cars – which is still supplementary but will eventually become dominant – has been timely, and so no car factories will be closed. If we hadn’t made this transition, including batteries, we’d not only have missed out on growth, but we’d also have had to see traditional car factories closing. This has been a prerequisite for saving those factories. I’ve just been at Mercedes, where at their factory they’ve hired their five-thousandth worker. And since they’ll be manufacturing electric cars, they’re recruiting another three thousand people; meanwhile in other European countries, thousands of workers are being laid off. So no one should take it for granted that we have a work-based society, that there’s full employment, and that it’s natural for the economy to grow even in wartime, when war is blocking the economy. For example, we’re about to introduce an 11 per cent increase in the minimum wage, when economic growth is at just 1 per cent. Even under these circumstances we’re able to double tax breaks for families and children, to introduce a fourteenth month’s pension, to make mothers tax-exempt, and to offer a fixed 3 per cent home creation loan. This is unprecedented! Europe is moving in the opposite direction – but in Hungary this isn’t widely known. What I’m saying is that staying out of the war and maintaining the current work-based economic policy is a prerequisite for ensuring that Hungarians’ standard of living doesn’t begin to decline, but instead increases.
And what’s needed in order to maintain these results and this kind of performance?
Money. For this you need money. You need to make money, and you mustn’t let the extra profits generated in Hungary leave the country – or rather, you should only let out as much as is necessary for fairness and for future investments, further investments. Any extra profits above that must be kept in the Hungarian economy and given to families. Between 2010 and 2025 we took more than 15 trillion forints from these large companies, banks, financial institutions, energy companies and multinational chains, and gave it to mothers for family support and thirteenth and fourteenth months’ pensions. This policy must be continued. We mustn’t allow multinationals – the Shells and the Erstes – to get into government and take Hungarian money out of the country.
Among the subjects I’ve been asking Prime Minister Viktor Orbán about were the Hungarian-Ukrainian energy dispute, the continuation of the war, and economic issues.
