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Economic growth above three per cent is realistic for next year 

In 2025 in Hungary, an economic growth above three per cent is realistic, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated on Monday in Budapest. Upon the signing of a three-year agreement, Mr Orbán said the agreement is based on the concept that the world with Europe in it will succeed in turning 2025 into a year of peace and the development of the economy will follow a curve that can be reasonably expected in a year of peace. 

The Prime Minster said the wage agreement is based on that optimistic scenario, but difficulties may arise, and so a review clause was incorporated into the agreement. Therefore, if the world does not take a turn for peace, the agreement must be amended accordingly. The Prime Minister stressed that he hoped this would not be required because the government’s macroeconomic expectations would be fulfilled. 

The Prime Minister said “there were major battles most recently,” and pointed out that the government was not in any way in control of these negotiations. “We don’t want to change the economic policy conviction that those must come to an agreement on the most important issue, the issue of wages who operate the economy. The government cannot assume this role,” the Prime Minister stressed, observing that “it’s best if the government plays as little a role in wage agreements as possible.” 

Mr Orbán said there were major battles also because the European economy is in a difficult situation. We have lived in the shadow of a war for three years, he pointed out, adding that the war has “taken its toll” on the European economy and is severely affecting all its actors. 

He highlighted that the success of the agreement also depended on the “state leadership skills” of trade union leaders and employers so that they can enforce their respective part interests without destroying the whole. If there is no pan-national thinking, a situation may arise that one party or the other wins, but the majority finds itself on the losing end. There must be “a kind of national commitment to the whole,” he said. 

The Prime Minister warned that the implementation of the agreement was not going to be easy. “If the Hungarian economy keeps performing at the same rev count as last year and the year before, that won’t accommodate the increase. This requires company managements, interest representations and also workers themselves to make a greater contribution to economic growth than in years previously,” he explained. 

Mr Orbán described the agreement as historic which, by his account, “raises the minimum wage – also by European standards – to a level that is worthy of us.” He said Hungary must be at the head of the pack. “We must be at the head of the chasing pack, with the chance that we may at some point catch up with even the very best. This wage level elevates us to a position where this goal, this desire is not unrealistic,” he said. 

In the Prime Minister’s words, an unprecedented wage increase will take place in Hungary, amounting to 40 per cent in total by 2027. In the European Union in the past 30 years, there has only been a single instance when a minimum wage agreement on such a scale was concluded in any country, he added. He indicated that the real value of the minimum wage will increase by 29 per cent, and the plan is for the minimum wage to reach one half of the average wage. If 2025 proves to be a year of peace, this will be achieved, “or at least we’ll be very close to it,” he said. 

By the Prime Minister’s account, 2025 could be a fantastic year because “a state project boom” will also be attached to the growth of the economy. Next year, as many as 300 new projects will be launched in Hungary to a total value of HUF 8,100 billion. In 2025, HUF 450 billion of this sum will be invested in the economy, he indicated. He also said in 2025 the biggest and most important projects of recent years will reach the final stages of implementation. The Budapest-Belgrade railway line will be completed, and enormous factories will be inaugurated in Győr, Szeged and Debrecen. 

He described workers as well as small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as the greatest winners of the agreement. He observed that the SME promotion programme launched under the auspices of the Demján Sándor Programme played an important role in the agreement. According to their calculations, this programme will channel HUF 1,410 billion to Hungarian businesses. 

The introduction of the worker loan helping young workers and the fact that employers will be able to provide housing rental and housing purchase grants of up to HUF 150,000 monthly for young workers under preferential terms and conditions also “finely oiled” the agreement, he added. 

Mr Orbán laid down that the agreement could not be considered or viewed on its own; it will only exert a beneficial effect if the new economic policy announced for 2025 succeeds. He also recalled that in 2010 the creation of one million new jobs had been the government’s most important and most memorable pledge. “I remember the tsunami of doubt that surrounded the concept,” he said, observing that they succeeded in honouring this pledge. The government now believes that an average income of one million forints must be reached within the foreseeable future. “This statement, this goal, this pledge of ours will be surrounded by the same doubts and the same debates that we experienced when we announced the programme of one million new jobs, and beyond doubt, there are – the same as 14 years ago concerning the pledge we made then, there were – factors of uncertainty. However, I’m happy that we have partners who don’t rule this out as a matter of course,” said the Prime Minister, adding that the big question is whether the Hungarian economy is able to generate the funds necessary for this. He stated that the Hungarian government “is at the disposal of employers by adopting measures which enable Hungarian companies to operate their businesses with a profit even against the background of such a wage level.” 

Hungary will be able to do this if we all want to, Mr Orbán underlined, thanking Ministers Márton Nagy and Mihály Varga who took part in the negotiations. He observed that the new economic policy will also bring about changes in the management of the economy which will concern the persons of the two ministers. “For one of them it’s a swan song, for the other a beautiful overture,” he said. 

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