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Ukraine’s EU accession could shake future of the economy

The government’s economic policy is not flawless, but as regards its direction, it has been stable, predictable and constant for fifteen years, and the government will achieve its economic goals this year as well, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated on Friday in Budapest at the Delegates Assembly of the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Mr Orbán said there is one single serious risk that could shake the economy’s future, namely Ukraine’s forced EU accession.

A robust layer of entrepreneurs constitutes the basis of a robust economy. There is no successful economic policy without a robust layer of entrepreneurs, the Prime Minister stated after he signed an agreement with the head of the Chamber about cooperation between the government and the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Economy.

Mr Orbán stressed that he regarded the signing of the agreement not as a mere formality, but as a serious affair, asking the attendees to see stability and predictability in the document, and then he thanked the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry for the agreements concluded in the past 15 years and their implementation.

He added that the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry was a privileged organisation, a key strategic partner of the Hungarian government. The government’s perception of businesses and entrepreneurs is reflected in its cooperation with the Chamber, he pointed out.

He stressed that Hungary’s future depended not only on politics and parties, but primarily on its performance. He also said it is the government’s duty to facilitate the successful operations of businesses.

He recalled that in the previous agreement the parties had identified clear goals: the economy must be made more competitive, taxes on work must be reduced, digitisation must be promoted, and the opportunities of Hungarian-owned small and medium-sized enterprises must be enhanced.

We delivered on our pledges: we introduced personal income tax exemption for young people under the age of 25; reduced the social contribution tax; simplified the launch of businesses and made the procedure cheaper; transformed dual training in order to make trained workforce more readily available, he listed.

He further added that they had renewed the interest subsidisation system; extended the energy bill reduction fund to small and medium-sized businesses; and on the whole, more than 40,000 young people launched businesses with support from the government.

There are plans on the table in Brussels which – with reference to supporting Ukraine – identify expectations vis-à-vis Hungary which would wipe the Hungarian economy out, the Prime Minister stated.

Mr Orbán said Brussels continually demands that Hungary raise the taxes levied on work and introduce new green taxes, and seeks to force Hungary to take part in collective EU borrowing and to overregulate businesses.

“We’re not doing any of that,” the Hungarian government is not Brussels’ executive bureau, he stressed, expressing his conviction that the Hungarian economy must be directed on the basis of Hungarian economic interests.

Instead, we engage in debates, sometimes even exercise our veto, then conduct talks, and eventually reach an agreement as we did in the case of the EU funds, he pointed out.

The Prime Minister also spoke about the fact that Hungary had two options regarding its future. One is the option of raising taxes – which is what the opposition stands for – while the other one is the option of a national economic policy which favours achievement and tax reduction.

In his view, the opposition wants to introduce new taxes such as a property tax and a real estate tax, would raise the personal income tax, and urges the introduction of new EU green taxes. He recalled that also prior to 2010, “it was always the middle classes that drew the short straw;” also then, they tried to introduce a real estate tax on family homes which could only be averted with the assistance of the Constitutional Court, they tried to introduce a general property tax for entrepreneurs owning small businesses, and there was a tax above 30 per cent on the average income.

He took the view that left-wing economic policies did not favour businesses and success, they were fundamentally based on envy, and were more about the taxation of the middle classes, the containment of performance, the redistribution of assets on an ideological basis and a lack of competitiveness. He said Brussels itself is as bureaucratic, non-transparent and anti-business as it is because it is controlled by the Left.

By contrast, he described the path of a national economic policy as follows: when it comes to the economy, the government is not interested in ideology, it adopts its decisions solely on the basis of common sense. He stressed that they had chosen the path of tax reductions because if there was a lesser burden on businesses, then there would be more jobs, there would be higher wages, there would be higher exports, and the country would become stronger.

He recalled that since 2010 they had halved the employer’s contribution, the personal income tax and the corporation tax, the average wage had tripled, the minimum wage had quadrupled, and Hungary’s economic performance had multiplied. At the same time, thanks to the reform of taxation, a million more people have jobs in Hungary, he added.

The government’s economic policy relies on the tenet that the economy is based on work, not on benefits, and that those who work must be supported, rather than taxed punitively, he stressed.

He added that tax cuts were key to competitiveness. While many in Brussels believe that you can buy competitiveness with subsidies and grants, this is not the case as the best kind of support is when entrepreneurs and the people are allowed to work and are not robbed of the valuable assets they produce, he explained.

Mr Orbán said in the case of left-wing governments, a downhill phase inevitably sets in sooner or later. As in Hungary the economy is not directed on an ideological basis, even left-wing entrepreneurs are able to support at least the government’s economic policy, the Prime Minister said, adding that if there is performance also on the Left, they cannot be left out of anything either, they, too, are part of the national economy.

He indicated that they would achieve their economic goals this year as well. They are not making up excuses, not complaining, not pointing the finger, not moaning either because of the war, or because of the sanctions.

He said this year the most important goal of the government is to implement Europe’s largest pro-family tax reduction programme, and whatever may happen, they guarantee that this will be accomplished. This is a programme worth four thousand billion forints, he observed.

He pointed out that with the Széchenyi Card project they were giving businesses HUF 320 billion, while as part of the Demján Sándor Programme they would mobilise several hundred billion forints with a view to boosting the economy.

He took the view that there was one single serious risk that could shake the Hungarian economy’s future, namely, Ukraine’s EU accession, “as in if they manage to push it down our throats.” That would be a threat for both Hungarian businesses and the national economy as a whole, he stated.

According to his information, during the three years of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the Hungarian economy has lost more than EUR 20 billion, and therefore, the country has a vested interest in the success of the US President’s peace efforts. We have a vested interest in not fanning the flames of the war any further either with words, soldiers or weapons, he pointed out.

Mr Orbán said Brussels’ overarching plan is to keep Ukraine alive as well as to maintain a Ukrainian army of a million from EU funds, and to admit the Ukrainians to the EU at a forced pace to this end.

He said the Brussels elite does not want to see that this would destroy the European economy, and would ruin Hungary.

“We can’t and indeed won’t undertake the financial burdens, the prospect of our EU grants being sent to Ukraine, and neither will we take the risk that is posed by the Ukrainian mafia. We won’t accept Ukrainian GMO foodstuffs, and won’t run the risk of the collapse of the Hungarian social care system that would result from Ukraine’s EU membership already in the short term,” he laid down, asking entrepreneurs to take part in the Vote2025 opinion vote.

Regarding the agreement concluded with the Chamber, he said it accommodates all the requests of the president of the Chamber, including a reduction of red tape, tax cuts and tax simplification.

He also spoke about the fact that with a decision adopted on Wednesday, the government had raised the allocation of the Demján Sándor Programme serving to promote small businesses to HUF 130 billion. He said the originally available allocation would have only allowed for the subsidisation of 450 applications out of the 1,885 received. Therefore, the government decided to add another HUF 82 billion to the allocation of HIUF 48 billion.

In summary, he said he is convinced that the economic policy pursued by the government is supported by the country’s majority. Staying out of the war, stopping migration, and supporting families as well as small and medium-sized enterprises, he said, indicating that they will observe the agreement now signed with the Chamber not only in 2025, but also in 2026 and in the years after.

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